Wind and solar electricity costs have fallen so much that building  new renewable generation is now cheaper than operating 39% of the world’s existing coal capacity, and this will increase to 60% of existing capacity in the next two years, according to the UN. Half of India’s current coal capacity will be uncompetitive against renewables in 2022, said, Antonio Guterres, while speaking at the  Darbari Seth Memorial Lecture on August 22, 2020. He further added that if the 1.5 degree limit is breached then India will endure more intense heatwaves, floods and droughts, increased water stress and reduced food production, all undermining progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. He ended by saying that both the pandemic and the climate crisis have raised fundamental questions about how to ensure the health and well-being of the world’s people and about how nations must  cooperate to advance the common good. 

This booklet by Tanya Thomas is a critical study looking at India’s energy systems and issues surrounding it today. Based on facts and current trends she offers not only the way ahead but also seeks answers to uncomfortable questions not being asked around the sudden renewables growth. There are legacy issues with the hydro and then there are environmental and economic costs with the fossils, she discusses it all.

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As the country went through a lockdown period in March, initial slowdown of economic activities resulted in the brief moments of cleaner air, less pollution and sudden improvement in climatic conditions. However, it has definitely not caused a dent in the unfolding climate crisis, as we witness the worsening air pollution in Delhi and other big cities. The uncertainty remains on finding a cure for the health pandemic as much for the climate crisis. 

The reaction from the government’s world over have been mostly on the predictable lines and in the name of the economic recovery the prescriptions are as expected, which means delaying significant steps for tackling climate crisis due to sudden economic slumps, even basic minimum technological changes have now been put on hold. The rush to restart the economy and push for manufacturing and consumption mean more emissions. 

It was reported that during the pandemic, India’s proportion of renewable energy rose from 17 per cent to 24 per cent while coal- fired power declined from 76 per cent to 66 per cent. Even then there is no coal phase out plan in sight. The deadline for the installation of flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) units in the power plants continue to be extended for one reason or the other, as has been pointed out by the author inside in chapter two. Not only this, the country has increased its focus on increased production of the domestic coal and taken steps for commercial mining. 

As pointed out by the UN Chief and also argued in detail by the author of this paper, coal makes no social and economic sense given its high social and environmental coasts and continued competition from other cheaper renewable sources. The message is clear ‘there is no money to be made in thermal’. But the party continues. 

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UN chief lauded India for the lead it has taken in renewables and specially lauded its efforts at international platform by taking the leadership in International Solar Alliance. However, the path from fossils to renewable is not an easy one and there are lessons to be learnt from the past mistakes, some of these have been argued in detail by the author in each of the chapters. 

Electricity production from dams have now been categorized as renewable, even though it remains contested and there are legacy issues with the big dams in India which remains unaddressed till date. Dams have failed, not only to meet its desired irrigation potential or electricity generation targets but have been mired in controversies with huge cost and time overruns, long lock in investment periods and humongous social and environmental problems. Most of the dams have faced time and cost overruns and as mentioned in the first chapter it is not advisable to plan or execute any more new hydro and if necessary abandon or scrap projects where work has not significantly been achieved, something which will be in economic interest too. Unfortunately, new contracts for building dams in the ecologically fragile region of the Himalayas have already been planned and are being pushed forward by the governments. These remain a challenge for environment. 

And lastly, the big names in the renewables today are Adani, NTPC, and few other leading players of the fossil industry, who have read the writing on the wall and taken early lead in this. It may be as part of their diversification plan but carries all the marks of their historical legacy. The renewable development in India is following exactly the same patters which it did while developing coal and big hydro. 

There are problems of over acquisition of land than required, financial opaqueness, cost overruns and complete violation of the environmental and regulatory regimes. There is a rush to meet the targets but then there are no plans in place in dealing with the after project waste, or water requirements and the environmental impact of the same. 

The chapter on the renewables raise these issues including the problems with the current policy regime, grid stability and then of course the boom in this sector and how far that can be sustained given the volatility in the overall electricity market in India today. 

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All this power generation is being undertaken keeping in mind the growth projects but as we recover from the pandemic and unfolding economic crisis it’s not going to be easy to continue this level of consumption. In such a scenario what’s going to be the future ? If that’s a question for everyone to answer then there is the question of legacy. 

The energy generation projects in India, coal and big hydro have left nearly 500 million displaced from their land and livelihood, who are yet to achieve any credible resettlement and rehabilitation despite India having a new law recognising their right to R&R and compensation. In addition, India has already abandoned nearly 450 GW plus of planned thermal plants for various reasons since 2010, the land acquired for many of them remains with the authorities 

while farmers continue to fight to get them back. In addition, the old mines which are being closed leave a gaping toxic hole without any credible mine rehabilitation plans in sight. An estimated 70 GW thermal power plants along with their ash ponds are closed or will be retired by 2027 and abandoned without any credible plan for their rehabilitation too. 

Mere shift from the coal based electricity production to the solar or wind is not going to mean a just transition for the Indian economy, because there are legacy issues but also the issues of jobs which needs to be looked at. Coal sector is a big employer and there are not going to be so many jobs in the renewable sector which means emphasis and planning for the rejig of the economy which can generate green and sustainable jobs. Is anyone thinking about it ? 

The current government functions as, a slogan a day, and the one in circulation right now is #AtmaNirbharBharat but India can be self- reliant only if its villages and cities will be self-reliant and that would mean a shift from the energy and capital intensive economic systems, which raises the question on the current development paradigm. The current obsession with the growth and infrastructure development model is neither a path to ecological India or India ready to fight the climate crisis. 

The booklet provides an opportunity to look at these issues and provides us a window into the current developments in the electricity sector. 

Madhuresh Kumar, National Alliance of People’s Movements